Revenue 2025
$880.6M
+31% Y/Y | all-time high
Net Income 2025
$259.2M
all-time high
Operating Margin 2025
29%
2024: 28% | 2023: 26%
Gross Margin 2025
57%
stable 56-58% for 4 years
R&D 2025
$143M
+30% Y/Y | 16% of revenue
Convertible Notes (2025)
$750M
new issuance
1 Company Profile
Nova Ltd. is an Israeli metrology company providing measurement and process-control solutions for the semiconductor industry (semiconductor metrology). The company is based in Rehovot, traded on NASDAQ and on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, and is a constituent of the TA-35 index. Nova is regarded as one of Israel’s leading companies in the semiconductor industry — alongside Tower (TSEM) and Camtek — and is a critical supplier to the world’s leading chip manufacturers, including Samsung, TSMC and Intel. Nova’s distinctive feature is its rare combination of three measurement technologies — optical, materials and dimensional — allowing it to address the full metrology stack as nodes advance.
| מתחרה | טיקר | הבדל מרכזי |
|---|
| KLA Corp | KLAC | הגדולה ביותר בבקרת תהליכים — רחבה יותר, אך נובה מובילה בחומרים |
| Onto Innovation | ONTO | מטרולוגיה אופטית — מתחרה ישירה, קטנה יותר |
| Hitachi High-Tech | — | מבוססת SEM, גישה טכנולוגית שונה |
| Applied Materials | AMAT | פורטפוליו רחב כולל מטרולוגיה, פחות ממוקדת |
מקור: SEC 6-K, אתר IR נובה
2 Key Financial Observations
This summary is not a recommendation. It is a factual list of key financial metrics.
ביצועים — 4 שנים ($M)
| Year | הכנסות | רווח תפעולי | שולי תפעול |
|---|
| 2022 | 570.7 | 149.9 | 26% |
| 2023 | 517.9 (-9%) | 132.3 | 26% |
| 2024 | 672.4 (+30%) | 187.5 | 28% |
| 2025 | 880.6 (+31%) | 253.5 | 29% |
הוצאות תפעוליות 2025 ($M)
| הוצאה | 2024 | 2025 | שינוי |
|---|
| R&D | 110.3 | 143.4 | +30% |
| S&M | 65.1 | 82.2 | +26% |
| G&A | 24.2 | 26.1 | +8% |
| סה"כ | 199.5 | 251.7 | +26% |
| רכישות | — | 56.4 | — |
| SBC | — | 26.3 | ~3% הכנסות |
Missing data: 2021 מלא בדוחות 6-K, Backlog, חלוקת הכנסות לפי לקוח, FCF מפורט.
שולי תפעול ושולי גולמי (%)
3 Industry & Competitive Context
ציוד מוליכים למחצה — מטרולוגיה. שוק עם מבנה אוליגופולי — מספר מצומצם של שחקנים עם מומחיות טכנולוגית גבוהה. צמיחה מבנית (Secular Growth) ארוכת טווח, מונעת ע"י AI/HBM, מעבר ל-GAA, ו-Advanced Packaging.
| גורם | כיוון | השפעה |
|---|
| ביקוש AI ו-HBM | רוח גב | גבוהה — כל שכבת HBM דורשת מדידה מתקדמת |
| מעבר ל-GAA (Gate-All-Around) | רוח גב | גבוהה — Samsung ו-Intel עוברים, TSMC בהמשך |
| Advanced Packaging | רוח גב | גבוהה — Hybrid Bonding דורש פתרונות מדידה חדשים |
| מחזוריות סמיקונדקטור | רוח נגד | בינונית — ירידות מחזוריות עלולות להאט רכש ציוד |
| מגבלות ייצוא לסין | רוח נגד | בינונית — עלולות לצמצם שוק Target |
4 Risk Factors
| Risk | Context |
|---|
| מחזוריות סמיקונדקטור | 2023 הייתה שנת ירידה (-9%); המחזור הבא יכול להגיע. נובה צמחה +30% ב-2024-2025, אך זה לא לינארי |
| תלות ביצרני שבבים מובילים | Samsung, TSMC, Intel הם מקור מהותי להזמנות. ירידה בקפקס של אחד מהם משפיעה |
| מגבלות ייצוא לסין | ארה"ב מטילה מגבלות על ייצוא ציוד מטרולוגיה לסין. סין שוק גדול שעלול להיחסם |
| תחרות מ-KLA | KLA היא הגדולה בענף ויכולה להיכנס לנישות של נובה עם משאבים גדולים יותר |
| שינוי טכנולוגי | מטרולוגיה היא תחום מתפתח — שינוי קיצוני בטכנולוגיה עלול לערער את היתרון של נובה |
| חוב חדש $750M | אג"ח להמרה הונפק 2025 — מגדיל גמישות אך גם מגדיל חוב |
| אין דיבידנד | חברת צמיחה — תזרים מוחזר לעסק; משקיעים שמחפשים תשואה שוטפת לא יקבלו |
| חשיפה לשערי חליפין | מבנה עלויות ישראלי עם הכנסות בדולר — עליית שקל פוגעת בשולי רווח |
5 Analytical Lens — The Questions We Ask
In professional company analysis, the question is not "is this good?" but rather "through which lenses must this company be examined so that we do not miss what matters most?" At Bakshi Finance, every analysis passes through six lenses.
This framework is intended to structure analysis, not to produce an investment conclusion.
Growth
Revenue grew ~30% twice in a row (2024, 2025). How much of the growth is riding the AI wave (one-off) versus structural market-share expansion? How does the comparison to KLA look in growth-rate terms? What is the outlook after the current order peak?
Profitability
Operating margin rose from 26% to 29% in two years. How much of the improvement is product mix versus operating leverage on a fixed base? What is the reasonable ceiling — 32%? 35%? How does this compare to KLA (~36% operating)?
Leverage
The $750M convertible issuance in 2025 altered the capital structure. What was the purpose — future acquisitions, R&D investment, or buffer? What are the conversion terms and when? What is the expected dilutive impact on EPS?
Competitive Position
Nova leads in materials metrology — but KLA is 5× its size. How real is the moat from combining three measurement technologies? How will KLA respond — build internally, acquire a competitor, or ignore?
Management Quality
Waisman led the recovery from 2023’s downturn to 2025’s peak. How much of execution is management versus macro tailwinds (AI, HBM)? A new CFO since 2025 — how does that affect reporting and transparency?
Business Complexity / Risk
Nova is a metrology company with three technologies, four anchor customers, long-term contracts, and fab-CAPEX dependence. How should an investor value a company whose results depend on the global semiconductor cycle? What is the leading indicator of a cycle change?
6 Scenario Framework
Scenarios are descriptive, not predictive. They outline possible conditions, not expected outcomes.
These scenarios carry no probability assessment, no preferred direction, and no expectation regarding which, if any, will materialise.
Constructive Scenario — if the following conditions hold:
The AI cycle persists and chipmakers continue to order metrology at a high pace, the move to GAA at Samsung and Intel materialises on schedule, Advanced Packaging (HBM4, Hybrid Bonding) expands at TSMC and peers, and Nova holds or grows market share. Under these conditions, revenue continues to grow double-digit, operating margins rise toward 32-33%, and FCF grows materially.
Base Scenario — if current trends continue:
Revenue growth moderates to 12-18% annually (after two 30% years), operating margins stable around 28-30%, the semi cycle remains positive but not at peak. Nova continues to invest in R&D and selective M&A.
Adverse Scenario — if the following risks materialise:
A semi-cycle downturn (2026-2027), CAPEX delays at chipmakers, severe China export restrictions, or KLA entering materials metrology aggressively. Under these conditions, revenue may decline at a double-digit rate, operating margins drift toward 22-25%, and the convertible notes (if converted) dilute.
Scenarios describe conditions, not forecasts. There is no preferred direction and no probability assessment expressed in this framework.
7 How to Think About This Company
Nova is not a typical metrology company — it is a relatively small Israeli company that has become a "critical player" in a market dominated by KLA, a company 5× its size. These two numbers — a relatively small market share on one hand, and expertise that competitors lack on the other — are the essence of analysing Nova. The real question in analysing Nova is not "will metrology grow" (it will), but rather "will Nova be able to maintain or grow its market share against KLA, or be slowly captured by it over time?"
The critical variables to monitor are three. First, growth rate relative to KLA. Nova grew +31% in 2025; KLA grew ~25% over the same period. That gap (6 percentage points) is evidence Nova is gaining share. If the gap closes or reverses, it would be a signal that the advantage is fading. Second, revenue mix between materials metrology (the unique edge) and optical metrology. If the materials share grows, Nova becomes more distinctive. If it shrinks, Nova becomes another player in a crowded niche. Third, the semiconductor cycle. 2023 was a down year (-9% revenue); a reasonable expectation is that another downturn lies somewhere ahead. The question is not if, but when and how deep. Nova showed +30% twice in a row — a level difficult to sustain.
Where the analysis may go wrong. First error — treating 30% growth as run-rate. The high 2024-2025 market share is the result of a timed AI-CAPEX up-cycle; long-term equilibrium for a metrology company is 8-15% on average. Normalisation is likely at some point. Second error — treating 29% operating margin as a ceiling. Nova is still below KLA (~36% operating) — there is room for further improvement, but it requires greater scale. Conversely, in a revenue downturn, margins will contract quickly (two-way operating leverage). Third error — ignoring the new convertible. $750M is not a small sum for a company with a market cap of ~$5-6B. Conversion terms and the expected dilution are components that affect per-share value over the long term.
What distinguishes professional analysis of Nova from headlines. Headlines on Nova speak of "AI tailwind" or "new record". Professional analysis addresses three things: (a) the ratio between TAM growth (the overall market growing) and market-share growth (Nova taking share from KLA or Onto) — that is the difference between temporary and structural growth; (b) profit sensitivity to exchange rates (USD/ILS) — via the Israeli production cost base; (c) the scenario in which KLA decides to enter materials metrology aggressively. These are not what one buys or sells — they are what one asks before deciding.
The difference between surface-level analysis and professional thinking often lies in the variables that are not immediately visible.
The difference between surface-level analysis and professional thinking often lies in the variables that are not immediately visible.
8 Sources & Data
| # | Source | Date | Type |
|---|
| 1 | SEC EDGAR — 6-K FY2025 | 2026 | Official — SEC |
| 2 | SEC EDGAR — 6-K FY2022-2024 | 2023-2025 | Official — SEC |
| 3 | nova.com — IR | Quarterly | Official — company website |
| 4 | maya.tase.co.il — נובה | April 2026 | Official — Stock Exchange |
| 5 | NASDAQ.com — NVMI quote | April 2026 | Official — Stock Exchange |
| 6 | stockanalysis.com — מכפילים | April 2026 | Secondary |
Missing: 2021 מלא בדוחות 6-K, Backlog, חלוקת הכנסות לפי לקוח, FCF מפורט.
